Calculator
Win Rate Calculator
Calculate observed win rate from wins and losses. Then judge the number with context, because win rate alone does not tell you whether a trading strategy has positive expectancy.
How to calculate trading win rate
Win rate is wins divided by total trades. If you have 28 wins and 22 losses, you have 50 total trades and an observed win rate of 56%.
The formula is simple: win rate = wins / (wins + losses). The hard part is knowing how much confidence to place in the result.
Example win rate calculations
These examples show how the same number of extra wins can matter more in a small sample than in a larger one.
| Wins | Losses | Total trades | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | 10 | 60.00% |
| 28 | 22 | 50 | 56.00% |
| 55 | 45 | 100 | 55.00% |
| 108 | 92 | 200 | 54.00% |
Win rate is only one part of edge
A 40% win rate can be profitable with large average winners. A 70% win rate can lose money if losses are much larger than wins. Always pair win rate with reward/risk and expectancy.
After calculating your win rate, use the trading expectancy calculator to see whether the average trade is favorable.
Sample size matters
Ten trades can produce a very misleading win rate. Larger samples make the observed number more useful, but the path can still include streaks and drawdowns.
If your sample is small, treat the result as a clue, not a conclusion. A good system can look weak early, and a weak system can look strong after a lucky start.
Observed win rate is an estimate
The calculator shows the win rate observed in the trades entered. It does not prove the exact long-term win rate of the system, especially when the sample is small or execution has changed.
Use the number as an estimate that improves with cleaner data, consistent rules and larger sample size.
Example: 60 wins and 40 losses
With 60 wins and 40 losses, the observed win rate is 60%. That sounds strong, but it still does not answer whether the strategy makes money.
If the average winner is smaller than the average loser, the strategy may still have negative expectancy. If the reward/risk is healthy, the same win rate can be very powerful.
Use win rate as a simulator input
After estimating win rate, enter it into the trading probability simulator with the system's reward/risk and risk per trade assumptions.
This helps show what the same win rate can look like across different sequences, including winning runs, losing streaks and drawdowns.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good win rate in trading?
There is no universal good win rate. A lower win rate can work with larger winners, while a high win rate can fail if losses are too large.
Is win rate the same as expectancy?
No. Win rate only measures how often trades win. Expectancy also includes the size of wins and losses.
How many trades do I need before trusting win rate?
More is better. A small sample can be heavily distorted by luck. Use sample size, drawdown and expectancy together before judging a strategy.
Is observed win rate the true win rate?
Not necessarily. It is an estimate from the sample entered. The true long-term win rate may differ, especially with small samples or inconsistent execution.
Why does observed win rate move so much in small samples?
Each result has more influence when the sample is small. One extra win changes a 10-trade sample by 10 percentage points, but it changes a 100-trade sample by only 1 point.
Can a 50% win rate be profitable?
Yes. A 50% win rate can be profitable if average winners are larger than average losers.